Brighton Premier League prediction: Europe or relegation?...why either outcome is entirely possible

The Seagulls could as easily be on the edge of glory and a truly memorable campaign as they are in danger of fighting a fifth successive relegation battle.

Even the so-called experts cannot decide which way it will go. In the space of 24 hours a little over a week before the campaign begins, two pundits on TalkSport gave wildly contradicting forecasts.

Former West Ham United and England striker Dean Ashton said Brighton could finish in the top six. Ex-Leeds and Manchester City man Danny Mills then appeared on the same radio station to say the Albion were going down.

Both men could be right. If Graham Potter can find a way to turn the Seagulls’ famous xG into actual goals, then Ashton’s shout of European football coming to the Amex does not seem far-fetched.

Brighton after all could have finished as high as fifth last season according to the expected points table based on chances which should have been converted. In the end, they finished 16th with only four clubs below them in the table. It was a particularly weak division last time out, largely because the three promoted clubs only had one month between the end of a gruelling Championship promotion campaign and the start of the new Premier League season to recover, prepare and reinforce for the challenges of top flight football.

As a result, West Brom and Fulham returned to whence they came and Sheffield United suffered from a spectacular case of second season syndrome. Norwich City, Watford and Brentford have all had the standard eight weeks to get themselves ready.

They will surely put up a better fight at staying in the division than the previous relegated trio, making avoiding the drop a tougher proposition for the existing clubs. You rarely see a poor bookmaker and so their opinion in who will finish where is always worth listening to. Brighton are 13th favourites for the Premier League title. The best price you can get on Lewis Dunk lifting the silverware come May is 200/1; the worst 999/1.

That again is a massive fluctuation highlighting the difficulty people are having in assessing what the Albion might do. On average, it suggests a midtable finish which seems to be the most likely outcome.

How high Brighton are will be determined by the lessons Potter has learnt from his two seasons. The Albion were embroiled in the relegation battle at the midway point of both 2019-20 and 2020-21.

It was only once Potter adopted a style less obsessed with possession and settled on his strongest XI rather than selecting who played where via a roulette wheel that the Seagulls motored towards 41 points and relatively comfortable safety.

If Potter again reverts to trying to implement a way of playing that has not worked over the past two seasons, then another difficult autumn akin to the two wins from the opening 18 games we saw last year could lie ahead.

Experimenting with players out of position and a different line up every week cannot happen again, either. In the final friendly of pre-season, Potter tried Enock Mwepu at right back wing back. The £22 million signing from Red Bull Salzburg is on the record as saying his best position is as a number eight, so why then did Potter give him his Amex bow in an unfamiliar role?

Pascal Gross, Davy Propper, Dale Stephens, Adam Webster, Ben White, Steve Alzate, Jakub Moder… the list of players to have undergone Graham’s House is extensive. If Brighton are to succeed this season, Potter needs to be less experimental and more consistent.

There was another worrying sign from that Getafe game too about lessons not being learned. Brighton conceded their first of the evening from a set piece. In the early part of last season, every time the opposition won a corner or free kick in a dangerous position it seemed to result in a goal.

Hopefully, Getafe notching from a free kick swung into the box was because of rustiness in Webster and Lewis Dunk rather than a return to the dark days of being unable to mark.

Having said all of this, what then is it realistic to expect from Brighton this season? Tony Bloom has his stated ambition of becoming an established top 10 Premier League club. That will not happen overnight, so taking small steps towards that target in terms of improving points totals and finishing positions year-on-year seems fair.

At best, Brighton stood still last time out. Expected goals might have said a fifth placed finish was what the Albion deserved, but all that matters is actual goals and real points. 41 points was the same as 2019-20 and in terms of finishing position, the Seagulls actually dropped a place.

In his third season in charge and with a young squad of his own making, Potter needs to eclipse both those numbers in 2021-22. Even if it is a 14th placed finish with 43 points, that would show progress on 2020-21.

Whether that happens or not will depend on whether Brighton are the side who started last season with such wretched results or finished it by beating the likes of Manchester City, Liverpool and Spurs.

It could also hinge on whether the club manage to sign a new striker, but that is another column for when the transfer window shuts at the end of the month.