Has this outsider got all that's needed to be the Grand National winner?
Research on Grand National winners from the last 179 years have shown the average winning horse to be nine years old, weighing 10st 7lbs and has an average starting price of 16/1.
Horse racing fans will be well aware that the Grand National is not too furlong away, and historical research into previous winners has found that A Toi Phil has the best chance of stealing the £561,000 cash prize at Aintree Racecourse on Saturday 6th April.
Betting aggregator GrandNational.org.uk analysed the winning horses since the Grand National first started in 1839 and found that, statistically, the winner of the iconic race…
Has a handicap of 10st 7lbs
Has a starting price of 16/1
Is ridden by a jockey called John or Tommy
Is trained by a man called Tom
Has an owner called John
Looking at this year’s runners, A Toi Phil perfectly matches the best age (nine) and handicap (10st 7lbs) and most closely resembles the average Grand National winner.
And, with odds of around 66/1, this French stallion could make some racing fans very ‘financially stable’ if he crosses the finish line first.
Those concerned about the unfavourable odds should be reassured that a 100/1 outsider has been victorious at Aintree within the last decade. Mon Mome, raced by jockey Liam Treadwell, also had a handicap of 9 stone and claimed victory at Aintree by 12 lengths in 2009.
Looking at the early favourites for this year’s race, four of the five equal the average winning age (Tiger Roll, Anibale Fly, Rathvindenand Lake View Lad) and third favourite Rathvinden is closest to the ideal handicap with a weight of 10st 11lbs.
Another lucky race element that punters may wish to keep an eye on is the starting price. Statistically, horses with odds around 16/1perform best and 11-year-old Pleasant Company is the only horse in this year’s line-up rated at a similar 20/1, although prices will yo-yo in the build-up to the big race.
Some 23 outright favourites have gone on to win (13%), with a further six joint-favourites taking home the prize over the last 171 races (4%).
Sticking with lucky names, more winning horses have had a trainer called Tom (11) than anyone else, and George is another popular trainer first name (eight wins). Single Farm Payment – currently rated at 66/1 – is the only horse trained by a Tom in this year’s line-up, and ironically his last name is George.
The findings also show that the most successful horses often have a jockey called John or Tommy – both names have won 11 times each. Jockeys called George and Arthur have claimed eight and seven wins respectively.
There have also been 17 winning racehorse owners called John – 12 more than the next most successful name (Noel, five times).
Just seven horses have won the Grand National on more than one occasion and only one (Red Rum) has crossed the finishing line first at Aintree on three separate occasions (in 1973, 1974 and 1977).Tiger Roll is hoping to repeat the feat this year after rolling home victor last year.
A spokesperson from GrandNational.org.uk commented, “Research shows historically that, nine-year-old horses with a 10st 7lbs race best, so this makes A Toi Phil an interesting shout for punters, despite the bookies rating the horse at 100/1. If you’re making a wager on this year’s Grand National, it’s worth considering the historical data as inspiration for a cheeky flutter.”